The ANC Succession Race
Many commentators have linked the race for president of the ANC in 2007 to that of president of SA in 2009. And for good reason – the past 13 years, the same person fulfilled both roles and in all likelihood this will continue into the next round of elections. However, I feel we seriously need to separate these two positions. The two entities, the ANC and SA, face quite distinct challenges that may require different skills and expertise. As such, the requirements for the post of ANC president may be quite different than the requirements for the post of president of SA. It may be that in two years time, when the 2009 SA General Election comes along, the same person will be able to fulfil both posts, but it may also not be the case.
I have found that most political commentators and analysts have assessed this by looking at who is available within the ANC, and then who is the better candidate, particularly at leading SA. I think we should look at it from a different perspective – similar to advertising these positions – and first develop criteria for each position before evaluating candidates.
The criteria for each position must be developed along three key aspects:
- What will the challenges be for each institution in the next 5 to 10 years?
- What will be the role and responsibilities of the President each institution given these challenges, and where necessary, separate these from the roles and responsibilities of other office bearers?
- Given these roles and responsibilities, what skills, experience and expertise are required for each position?
Only after this should we “invite applications” and determine who is the most suitable candidate for each job. The ANC will most probably object to suggestions that the post of ANC president be discussed in the open since its “internal”. However, I don’t believe the discussion should favour any particular person, but rather stay as objective as possible in describing what is required of each position. It is then up to the ANC members to determine who should fill the position of ANC president later in 2007, and up to all SA voters to determine which party presents the best candidate for the post of SA president in 2009 and best/most favoured policies. The purpose of this is to stimulate more constructive debate about the succession race, in particular it becoming a more informative debate for everyone. Below are just some of my thoughts so far – I encourage others to add their comments / suggestions:
1. ANC President:
Potential Challenges in the Next 5 - 10 Years:
- Possible split between left (Zuma / Socialists / labour) and center-right (Mbeki / Business) groups in ANC
- Keeping the tri-partite alliance from disbanding
- Transformation from liberation movement to responsible governing party must continue
- Incidence of people simply using the ANC as way to self enrichment / empowerment
- Corruption scandals around ANC members emerge and/or escalate, e.g. possible fallout from Arms deal from foreign investigations– possible senior ANC members charged and/or implicated
- Traditionalists vs Modernists
- Debate about party funding
Roles and Responsibilities:
- Provide strong leadership within the party
- Represent and promote the ANC to the public
- Participate in developing party policies
- Engage with outside stakeholders, including alliance partners, party funders, etc.
Required skills and expertise:
- Leadership skills
- Good communication and negotiating skills between different factions within the party and alliance
- Understanding of the ANC history and policies
- Preferably struggle and/or union experience
2. South African President
Potential challenges in the next 5 to 10 years:
- Changes in Zimbabwe and other neighbouring countries
- HIV and AIDS, especially AIDS orphans
- Crime & Violence
- Poverty and Inequality – possible social unrest
- Economy and supply constraints
- Skills and Education
- Urbanisation and rural development
- Climate change and the impact on South Africa, particularly the poor
- Globalisation (China, US, EU, Mid-East tensions)
- 2010 World Cup
- AU, APRM and NEPAD
Roles and Responsibilities:
- Represent and promote South Africa and Africa on the world stage
- Lead and manage the cabinet
- Develop and implement policies to address challenges & govt priorities
- Interact with opposition parties and parliament
- Engage with other African leaders on the continent
Required Skills and Expertise:
- Leadership skills
- Good communication and negotiating skills
- Understanding of budgeting and economics
- Good organisational and coordination skills
- Knowledge on the SA Constitution and laws
- Awareness of the socio-political context in SA, i.e. diversity of SA and major issues in SA
- Fluent in English and at least three other South African languages
- Preferably more than 5 years experience in government / cabinet
- Willing to travel
